SemiState

Iraq: Moving Forward

2007-01-27T16:57:00.000-05:00

We have the honor of speaking as part of a powerful upcoming symposium, Iraq: Moving Forward held by Institute for Global Leadership (IGL) at Tufts University in partnership with the Project on Justice in Times of Transition. This will be a first in a series of speaking engagements we have in the next couple of months. We would be honored to have any of our readers attend.

On February 13th, I will lead a Brown Bag Lunch Discussion Group at the Jebsen Center for Counter-Terrorism Studies. On Saturday, March 3, I will sit on a panel titled "States of Ambiguity: Rebellion and Recognition" as part of the IGL's symposium on Global Crises: Governance and Intervention.

We will post from the conference and hopefully will have our multimedia presentation live on-line in the next couple of weeks.

Concluding thoughts (2 flights down, 2 to go)

2007-01-12T02:55:00.000-05:00

Greeting from Ataturk International Airport, our latest layover destination en route home. The last day has given us a chance to begin digesting all the information we acquired and to begin to filter our thoughts. One way I like to describe the knowledge acquisition process is repeated efforts to chisel away at rough clay until a shape of some coherence reveals itself. I must admit that at the moment coherence is only beginning to emerge. In some areas of the research I find myself more confused than ever. One thing is certain for me at the onset: the case of Iraqi Kurdistan will undoubtedly disappoint both the postmodern globalization enthusiasts as well as the skeptics.

It is neither a miracle story of new forms of sovereignty nor an obvious example of why states will continue to rule in the future. Iraqi Kurdistan - like all the regions we’ve examined in this and other parts of the world - is a riveting story, though one that does not lend itself to simple categorizations and labels. This can be frustrating for a thesis, in the sense that it will be difficult to offer coherent causalities or particularly strong arguments. However, the time in Iraqi Kurdistan has allowed us to tease out some of the important themes that often are missed by external analysts. Had we relied on media reports alone, for example, we would never have been able to identify the underbelly of the economic and political development of Iraqi Kurdistan. We could not have gotten a sense of the cultural impulses, societal tensions, nor the precarious road ahead.

As Matt stated eloquently before, nothing is exceptional in international relations (not even exceptionalism itself). I could not agree more - the Kurds, like all people, are able to rise in times of great challenge as well as disappoint in times of enormous opportunity. The story of Iraqi Kurdistan is compelling if only because in the presence of such commonalities we must also understand the dynamics of its contextual development. The intricacies of the regional and domestic context require a committed long-term effort to disentangle. We are both tremendously appreciative and humbled that our mentors and friends supported us in our efforts explore this road.

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Matt’s writing now. I was going to wax poetic, but Matan has summed it up better than I could, so I’ll be short (cue Dawson’s Creek theme song here). The trip was about as successful as we could have dreamed at its onset, and the warmth and friendliness shown to us by our hosts was truly fantastic. Clearly, without the support of our respective educational institutions, this trip would not have been possible. The same goes for our new friends in Iraqi Kurdistan.
I like Matan’s chisel metaphor, especially in concert with another metaphor once told to me by Prof. Michael M.J. Fischer. Consider the subject a giant, hidden mosaic. With everything one reads, and every person one speaks with, and with every theory one applies, a tile is added. The problem is, the mosaic is much too large to ever be finished; at the same time, it’s constantly expanding and changing.

In the next few weeks, we hope to give you a glimpse of what we think the mosaic for Iraqi Kurdistan looks like--including web-based multimedia pieces with audio and photograph slideshows.

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The objective of the blog was simply to offer the opportunity - to those who had the interest - to follow our happenings. We apologize for any incoherence, run-on sentences, misspellings, and the like. These entries were often written late into the night or in haste between engagements. It was comforting to know that some of you - even if it was just our parents - were with us along the road, even if it was electronic and prone to frequent black-outs. Cheers and Godspeed!!

Matan and Matt

A day with the Peshmerga

2007-01-10T13:22:00.000-05:00

Always carry a calendar of Britney Spears with you... for example, we've tried to go on patrol with the peshmerga since we've arrived. Finally, today, our package of incentives paid off. Mid-morning while we were walking through the market we got a call from Mulazem (Officer) Luqman informing us that he is sending two cars to get us. We sped back to our humble motel where we found a host of peshmerga waiting for us... this served to only confuse the management further as to what our purpose here is.

The city of Erbil is surrounded by a 92 KM trench that is 3 meters deep and wide. This focuses all incoming traffic to the city towards five checkpoints. The Kurdish Regional Government had this trench dug one year and a half ago to avoid infiltration by insurgents from the Sunni Triangle and Kirkuk. Luqman and his forces drove us south to the Kirkuk checkpoint and we drove along the trench.

There are 4-5 peshmerga manning the trench every kilometer along the way. These forces lack regular uniforms, common equipment, or any of the sophisticated technology most border forces take for granted. For example, there is not a single pair of night-vision goggles in any of the checkpoints along the trench.

Nonetheless, the security situation here is very impressive. Many of the security experts we spoke with here suggest that the key to this success has been the cooperation of the population which simply will not provide a sanctuary to radical Islamists. The Asayish, or internal security, has true intelligence dominance. One method used to secure the region is that each family from the south of Iraq that wants to visit or move to Kurdistan has to be sponsored by an individual, family, company, or the like from the Kurdish region. If you are not from here people can sense it immediately - certainly, if you do not speak Kurdish well you stick out like a sore thumb. The coalition forces lack this kind of familiarity with territory in the rest of the country - the results speak for themselves.

In the afternoon we had a fantastic and most informative meeting with the Minister of Finance and Economy, Sarkis Aghajan Mamando. There is only scant (and mostly unreliable) economic indicator figures for the period we are studying. Nonetheless, Kag Sarkis had some fascinating insights and figures. For example, he explained to us - in painstaking detail - how the Kurds tried to enact monetary policy and control inflation during the 1990s while facing an economic war from Saddam with strong support from Turkey and Iran. He also shared with us his frustrations with the policies of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) towards Kurdistan. He described the cumulative effects of CPA policies as a "tremendous blow" to the Kurdish economy. In many aspects, the economy here did better under the double embargo of the 1990s then it did after the fall of Saddam.

Tomorrow morning we will begin our long journey home. The first step will be a ride back to Suli where we will try to meet with the Vice President of Iraqi Kurdistan. Our flight leaves at 5 PM to Amman and from there we leap to Istanbul before we touch down in the USA. Once we pack our things we will both share some final reflections from the trip... stay tuned.

The Final Lineup

2007-01-09T15:15:00.000-05:00

So we realize some of you got the impression that all we did here was eat hommus and try to follow American football from afar... To alleviate your fears we thought we would share our list of interviewees over the last 2.5 weeks. While we did not manage to meet with everyone we wanted to meet with, in the main we are rather pleased with the breadth of folks we had the chance to interview.

Iraqi Kurdistan Research Interviews, Winter 2006
(* denotes meeting in Iraqi Kurdistan)

Ayub Nuri, Kurdish Journalist
Jessie Graham, NPR Reporter
Hania Mufti, Human Rights Watch
*Ala Jabbary, Lecturer, Sulaimany University and former member of Jalal Talabani’s Secretariat
*Rev. Denha Hana Toma, Chaldean Vice Patriarch in Sulaimany
*Aziz Hassen Aziz, Head of Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) Military Services
*Ferhad Mahmoud, Reporter, Institute for War and Peace Reporting, Sulaimany
*Mala Bakhteyer, Leading member of PUK
*Twana Osman, Editor, Hawlati Independent Weekly
*Mamosta Saifuddin Ali, Head of PUK Security Agency, Asayish
*Jalal Abdullah Sulemani AKA Jalal “Democrat”, Independent Journalist
*Hama Tawfeeq, Head of PUK Foreign Relations
*Dana Ahmed Majeed, Governor of Sulaimany
*Fareed Asasard, Director, Kurdistan Center for Strategic Studies
*Jamal Fuad, Former Minister of Agriculture, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
*Karim Zand, Historian
*Three dozen graduate students, University of Sulaimany
*Faruk Mustafa Rassool, Chairman of the Board, Asiacell
*Dr. Diar Ahmed, CEO, Iraqicom Technologies
*Dr. Khasraw, Abdulla Rashid Assistant Professor, Director of Foreign Relations, University of Sulaimany
*Namo S. Majeed, Program Manager, Civil Society Initiative
*Shorsh M. Amin, Public Relations Officer, Civil Society Initiative
*Krekar A. Khoshnaw, Chief of Staff, Kurdistan National Assembly
*Nawzad Hadi, Governor, Erbil
*Abdul Karim Sultan Sinjari, Minister of State for the Interior, KRG
*Azad I. Mala Afandi, Minister of State for Justice, KRG
*Dr. Mohammed Ihsan, Minister of Extra Regional Affairs and former Minister of Human Rights
*Falah Mustafa Bakir, Director, Office of Foreign Relations, KRG
*Ismat Argushi, Head of Asayish, KRG
*General Mustafa Ali Bawilaja, Director, Erbil General Prison
*Professor Denise Natali, Honorary Fellow, Institute for Arab and Islamic Studies, Exeter University
*Michael Parker, Senior CPATT Liason Officer, Ministry of the Interior, KRG
*Muhammed Rauf, Minister of Trade, KRG
*Colonel Howard Thevenet, U.S. Army Colonel, Camp Zaytun, Erbil
*Khawla Khanekah, National Officer, Education Section, UNICEF
*Harry Schute, Jr., Director, Point 62 Consulting
*Dr. Mohammad Sadik, President, University of Salahaddin
*Jelena Lukic, Resident Program Officer, Governance and Public Policy, International Republican Institute (IRI)
*Djordje Todorovic, Resident Program Officer, IRI (Erbil)
*Shayan Nuradeen, Program Assistant, IRI (Erbil)
*Sarkis Aghajn, Minister of Finance, KRG
*Dr. Shafiq Qazzaz, Former Minister of Humanitarian Aid, KRG

Your correspondents in Kurdistan...

The final stretch?

2007-01-09T14:34:00.000-05:00

Dearest readers,

Incredibly, today was our second-to-last day of research here in Iraqi Kurdistan. Of course, it's too soon for the credits to roll on this project, but we've already begun thinking of ways and means of translating our research into products we can share: web-based multimedia pieces, academic thesis/journal articles, first-person journalistic accounts, 13-month "Iraqi Kurdistan Beachwear" calendars, and the like. If you have any ideas, please send them our way.

But before the final reflections get everyone weeping, here's a few photos from the day in the markets of Erbil...

Erbil street market

A woman in chador just outside the market

A Kurdish man trying to sell his rugs

Here's a hilarious taxi driver whom we met today, listening at Zakaria at extraordinary volumes...what a killer smile...

More soon...

Go Buckeyes! (Matan) Go Gators! (Matt)

2007-01-08T14:29:00.000-05:00

Dearest readers,

A selection of images from the past few days--we hope these will give a better sense of some issues we've been grappling with recently...

In the city center of Erbil, massive construction competes for space with the past. As I posted earlier, and as I will explain in more depth later, I'm skeptical that this sort of economic activity is sustainable for the region.

Here's a food stall in Erbil. Ok, don't get me wrong, the economy is healthier now than it had been under Saddam. From 1992-2003, when the Kurds operated as a de facto state--with the US defending, by air, the no-fly zone--the region was under two embargoes: one that was placed on the whole of Iraq, from the international community (the Kurds were still technically in Iraq, of course), and an additional embargo, this one only for the Kurds, was administered by Saddam. The goods that came into the region were smuggled in from Turkey to the west or Iran to the east.

In 1996, the UN Oil for Food program was designed and implemented to ameliorate the worst effects of the embargo on Iraq's populace. But because the UN places such an emphasis on state sovereignty--you've heard this before--any program to help the Kurds had to go through where? Ah crap, Baghdad. So it's no surprised when the program suffered from massive amounts of international and Iraqi corruption. And yes, Baghdad did everything in their power to skim money any way, and to provide the Kurds with inferior goods, like expired food and sour milk. But, the program was better than nothing, and gave the Kurds a life line to survive. I'm still worried about the economy now, though.

Here's a muddy soccer field near the center of the city. Note the giant mosque in the background. The Kurds love soccer, and there are several Kurdish players on the Iraqi national team. See here for a story on them in today's nytimes, and here for an interesting read about soccer and globalization.

Residential street in Erbil near dusk.

Here's the "Sheraton" we mentioned in an earlier blog. Apparently, its construction was being supported by the Iraqi Government before the first Gulf War. Just as it was about to open, the revolt of the Kurds, the swift counter-attack by Saddam, and the no-fly zone was put in place. Baghdad pulled all of its civil servants out of Kurdistan and abandoned the project. The Kurds looked into finishing it, but rejected the high costs of licensing it as an official Sheraton brand hotel, so they left the original sign (which says Sheraton on it), and opened it anyways.

Giant concrete walls protecting the Sheraton from potential threats, and a peshmerga (Kurdish fighter) patrolling outside.

Finally, we have our mutual hero, Matan, enjoying a small lunch.

More coming later, as always, dear readers.

Go Pats!

2007-01-07T12:20:00.000-05:00

The feast holiday came to an end today – the streets filled with children on their way to school and cars filled the drenched roads as people returned to work. We spent the morning at the Kurdish National Assembly (KNA) for the formal opening of the winter session. On the first day after the feast it is customary for common people to come greet their representatives in the parliament and spend some minutes speaking with them and eating treats. Matt and I spent several hours with the chief of staff of the parliament as dozens of people cycled through his office – a terrific tradition indeed. It was exactly at this gathering in 2004 that members of the Islamist group Ansar al Islam blew themselves up in simultaneous attacks on the Erbil headquarters of the two leading parties. Scores of people were killed and hundreds injured in an event that truly scarred the people of Kurdistan. The following May, over 50 people were killed in a suicide bombing at a recruiting station for the police. Since then, however, there has not been a single attack in either Erbil or Suli.

For our research we have been trying to understand how in 1992 the Kurds managed to transition their guerilla peshmerga force into the impressive regular force of police, military, intelligence, and internal security without the formal support and aid of the international community. To gather more information we headed over to Camp Zaytun (which means Olive – as in olive branch), the Korean manned forward operating base (FOB) outside Erbil. The camp has two Korean brigades (approximately 5,000 troops) but is rapidly downsizing. There is a very small U.S. team on the base. We met with a Colonel who heads up the Border Transition Team – a small group of U.S. troops that mentor and train the border security elements in the Kurdish security apparatus.

We found a group of soldiers working hard to fix the satellite TV in anticipation of the Pats game… We too are hoping to catch a glimpse of the game by heading to the “Sheraton” later on tonight.

We only have a few days left here in Kurdistan and we are trying to fill in the missing gaps in our research. Towards that end we met with the Minister of Trade to try to get some economic figures. The Minister is also a member of the Islamic Union Party, a mainstream Islamic party with the third largest bloc of seats in the parliament. Tomorrow we will meet with a representative from UNICEF and the Minister of Finance. We also hope the weather will improve and will allow us to go on patrol with the peshmerga and see the ditch they dug around the city to prevent infiltration from insurgents.

The economic revolution will not be on satellite TV

2007-01-06T17:48:00.000-05:00

I currently don’t have enough time, space, or intelligence to fully flesh out an argument I am about to present. However, wanted to throw it out there, and add to it in the coming days.

The central thesis is this: the economic boom in Kurdistan is not sustainable nor really an economic boom. “That’s strange,” you say, “I heard that there was a building boom in Iraqi Kurdistan.” Well, dear reader, I’m impressed--you are up to date on your Kurdish building news. It’s true, buildings are being built at a tremendous rate here, especially Hawler. It would be really sweet if then inside these buildings, someone made something, and then sold it. Alas, this will not happen. Rather, inside the new markets and mall’s slippery white-tiled floors, brickety-brack, fruit, vegetables, and other crap from, uh, everywhere else, will be sold.

Don’t get me wrong. This place is doing much better than the rest of Iraq. But danger is afoot. Iraqi Kurdistan has a slight problem. As a region, it doesn’t make anything. Go to a market, you got your tomatoes from Syria, clothes from Turkey, nuts from Iran, but you will not see anything from Kurdistan other than the people selling the goods.

[Oil, you say? Don’t they have boatloads of oil over there in Iraqi Kurdistan? Hmm, yes, but it hasn’t been tapped yet. Everyone in Iraq will want a piece, and any sort of resolution is a long way off, notwithstanding the time it will take to build capacity to pump it, and finding a way to get it to a refinery. So don’t hold your breath.]

When Saddam left the Kurds alone from 1992 on (after he destroyed much of the area’s rural areas), the region survived by tightening its collective waistbelt, and going into the smuggling economy. The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) made a small amount of money from taxing goods coming in from Turkey. Two years in, the main two parties fought a civil war over these revenues. After the US invasion, the recognizing of the KRG as a legitimate regional government of Iraq gave the region access to a piece of the country’s oil revenues. Now, 95% of the KRG’s budget is coming through Baghdad, and over 60% of this money is going into government salaries. Seriously. This place is incredibly dependent on the government to support the economy in a very direct way, by providing for a huge amount of the public’s income.

The Kurds have become big consumers, buying goods (including the ubiquitous satellite TV) from all over. But they don’t make anything, in either the agriculture or the industrial sector. And the lion’s share of the money their survival is depending on is coming from—oh crap—Baghdad. Does this sound sustainable to anyone?

Later: So, is it a economic boom? And, Kurds who are getting rich (hint: they were already rich).

Another Exciting Day...

2007-01-06T09:38:00.000-05:00

Gulan Weekly, a political journal published here in Erbil, interviewed me some days before I came here on US foreign policy towards Iraqi Kurdistan as well as our research question here. For our Kurdish readers (we know you're out there... right?) you can access the article here.

We had a busy day today - met with the head of the Asayish (internal security) and got a tour of the general prison here. In the afternoon we met with Prof. Denise Natali, author of a wonderful book on Kurdish national identity. She is researching a second book currently and we had the honor of spending several hours with her running through ideas on our research. We had our first session with coalition forces this afternoon as well - a good chat with senior officers from the Civilian Police Assistance Training Team (CPATT). Their mission role is to help train and equip the police force here. We got the inside scoop on the sensitivity of assistance role here in Kurdistan and the role of the small US and Korean contingents here. Tonight we will meet again with Mohammed Ihsan for dinner.

The parliament returns to session tomorrow and we plan on spending most of the day interviewing members of parliament and if the weather improves (it's been raining non -stop for two days) to go out on patrol with the peshmerga.

Holler from Hawler

2007-01-05T16:18:00.000-05:00

Our first three days in Erbil (the Kurds call it Hawler), the regional capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, have been quite the whirlwind. In this short time we have met the Chief of Staff of the Kurdish National Assembly, the governor of the Erbil province, the Minister of Interior, Minister of Justice, and the Minister of Extra-Regional Affairs (read: Foreign Minister). Our schedule is packed for the next couple of days and includes more meetings with senior cabinet members, some academics, and coalition forces.

Our meeting this morning with the Minister of Extra-Regional Affairs was one of our most intriguing thus far. Dr. Mohammed Ihsan served as the first ever Minister for Human Rights for the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) from 2001-2006. The Frontline documentary “Saddam’s Road to Hell” follows him as he undertakes a journey to uncover the whereabouts of 8,000 missing members of the Barzani tribe from the beginning of Hussein’s rule of Iraq. The Minister was an impressive man and tremendously hospitable. Friday is like the weekend here and he was willing to spend two hours with us. He had some very interesting perspectives on our research question.

He noted that the development of de-facto Kurdistan was rather accidental and took place at a unique moment in history that allowed for and facilitated the development of political institutions in the absence of international recognition. The global dynamics of the post-Cold War were chief amongst these. But there were many other important factors.

At the time nationalism was very high and the alternative to any reality was a return to the rule of Saddam. This stark choice obliged people to rally behind the Kurdish national project. He noted that Kurdish teachers, medical staff, and other social service workers did not receive any income for over a year after the uprising but managed to continue their work. With the complete political and administrative vacuum left after the withdrawal of Saddam, Kurds filled in admirably. The good fortune was that the Kurds were highly educated. The Iraqi educational system was strong and many of the Kurds also went abroad for schooling in the top academies in Europe. These provided the necessary human capital to help fill the void.

Assistance from the international community was limited to emergency humanitarian aid. None of the international agencies or bilateral partners helped with the political development. Nonetheless, the fact that the Kurds did not have to focus exclusively on feeding their people, allowed them to focus on state building.

In addition the so-called “information society” rallied behind the cause. The global media, for the first time, gave extensive coverage of the Kurdish issue and the disastrous humanitarian situation after the Anfal campaigns (a series of operations under Saddam’s rule that killed hundreds of thousands of Kurds and destroyed 4,500 villages). The Kurdish ex-pat community (25% of Kurds) began sending in substantial remittances. According to figures from the Zakho border crossing (near the border with Turkey) approximately $2.5 million dollars came to Kurdistan each month.

We have decided to now break up our study into three historical periods. The first is the period after the Gulf War until the Kurdish civil war in the mid-1990s. The second is from the end of the civil war to Operation Iraqi Freedom (the Kurds refer to the war as “The Fall of Saddam”). The third period is 2003-present. Each of these periods is remarkably distinct and reveals some of the challenges and opportunities of de-facto statehood. Consider Kag (Mr.) Mohammed’s thoughts on the current situation. He called it a “trap” because public opinion is overwhelmingly in favor of independence (in a referendum one year ago, 97.5% of the people voted for independence). However, the leadership understands that the regional environment and the economic situation makes separation from Iraq an impossibility. Unlike 1991-92, people are no longer willing to sacrifice their livelihoods as willingly for the national project. The ghastly alternative of Saddam (and its enormous role as a mobilization tool) is gone. Ex-pats are no longer sending in funding – in fact, money is now sent from Kurdistan to Kurds abroad. There is no revenue that is generated by production in Kurdistan at the moment – 95% of the budget comes from the oil revenues of the Iraqi central government. Although the Kurds have enormous oil potential here they still lack the extractive and refining capacity as well as the shipping routes to the outside world.

Thus, a prisoner’s dilemma situation emerges – the Iraqis needs the Kurds and vice versa. The Kurds are staying in Iraq because they have to and because it is in their best interest. The current leaders have no dream of independence at the moment and none of a greater Kurdistan. Their principle goal, as Prime Minister Barzani said in his inauguration speech, is to make the KRG not only responsible for the people but responsive to them. The current stalemate gives the Kurds a unique opportunity to do so and you really get a sense that the Kurds sense their unique moment in history. In the past these moments were fleeting ones, botched by the leadership. Now the Kurds feel they have sided with the winners and that their interests have finally aligned with those of the international community. Time will tell if their optimism is warranted. For now, we continue our memorable journey…

Proof of life & Chef Zidane

2007-01-05T14:22:00.000-05:00

We've had a flurry of comments that we aren't updating the blog enough. Ok, just one comment. Actually, it wasn't a comment so much as our parents asking for proof of life.

So, to assuage concerns, we present the following photos, and a comment or two.

The first photo clearly shows Matan alive, and standing next to Mulla Mustafa Barzani. Still working on the meeting with his son (President of Iraqi Kurdistan).

Next we have a photo of Matt (also looking alive) working on his laptop during a power outage (mentioned before--Gov't provides two hours of electricity, the rest is on generators)

Here we have a real gem. As we've come to learn, Iraqi Kurdistan embraces global brands with the zeal of a convert. But, like the ambiguous nature of the state, we've found ambiguous brands as well: a McDonald's that, upon closer inspection, is called MaDonald's, a Sheraton that is decidedly NOT a Sheraton, and finally, oh this is beautiful:

An unbelievably unauthorized Real Madrid Restaurant! Look at those chef hats on Roberto Carlos, Zidane, and Beckham! Fantastic!

And last but certainly not least, Matan decided to stop looking scrappy and start looking respectable:

He claims it's a social experiment, to have a shave--before, with his beard, he was mistaken several times for being Kurdish (I, dear reader, with my fair Minnesotan complexion, was not so lucky). We'll see the reaction to the new look tomorrow...

A quick thought

2007-01-03T16:24:00.000-05:00

Yes, Matt finally posts something:

One fascinating aspect of this research in Iraqi Kurdistan is how the area compares to an area I examined last year in Northern Somalia, a de-facto state called Somaliland. Like Iraqi Kurdistan, Somaliland began to pick up the pieces of their community in the early 1990s, after (again, just like Iraqi Kurdistan) their southern -based government bombed the hell out of them. Both entitites established--in less than a decade and a half--a fledgling state (without recognition, of course), complete with low-level basic services, a parliament, elections, and a FOX News-esque channel. I'm kidding about that last part. Of course, everything isn't as rosy as both the Kurds and the Somalilanders try to portray to foreigners, but compared to southern Iraq and southern Somalia, well, you know where I'm going. So the question is, did Iraqi Kurdistan and Somaliland establish themselves in a more organic and stable way because of, or in spite of, the absence of the international community?

When I think about this in a quiet room, I start to get really sad. If our answer turns out to be yes (I tend to think this is the case for Somaliland), then we're postulating that the international community and its armies of PhD trained experts are so bad at nation-building that these places did better without them (and their millions of development dollars). Buuut we can't be lazy and make the mistake of simply comparing Southern Somalia and Northern Somalia, and (separately) Southern Iraq and Northern Iraq, because there are too many factors which differ within the countries for a straight up comparison. (I don't think I explained that well.)

Anyway, in other news, we ran into our first Americans in Kurdistan this morning, who appeared much more worried about driving through the streets of Suliamany than we did. Sadly, they turned around and left before we could shout hello from our crappy cab.

Research Ruminations...

2007-01-03T15:59:00.000-05:00

What has been the impact of non-recognition on the political development and statecraft of unrecognized states? Did non-recognition of Kurdistan as an autonomous and independent entity from 1992-2003 deprive it of the international engagement and support necessary to build democratic and accountable institutions and sustainable development? Or, did the lack of international meddling require Kurdistan to work out the internal schisms in the body politic and provide it with the necessary space to create organic institutions capable of providing stability and economic development? In brief, what are the advantages and disadvantages of non-recognition?

This is one of the leading questions we have tackled in our 18 interviews thus far. We have encountered a range of opinions on this matter. This morning we had an enlightening session with the Program Director of the Civil Society Initiative, one of the few independent NGOs in Iraqi Kurdistan. He argued that since the leadership of the parties in 1992 was composed of the peshmerga (Kurdish soldiers) who led the anti-Saddam uprising, they had the requisite legitimacy and tools to bring stability to the region. He posited that with the tumultuous politics of the region at the time the international community could not have administered any better and did not have the skill sets to bring stability and proper governance to the area. However, over time, the stability provided by the two major parties (PUK and KDP) became oppressive.

The parties that had led the war put themselves in charge of the regional government and like many revolutionary movements the “day after” scenario was far less rosy than promised. The ambiguous situation created what Charles King has called “profit networks” – those in power profit from the stalemate and work to sustain it. Many of the students we met here as well as the independent media complain of true Soviet-era politics dominated by the cult of personality and patronage networks. The only real jobs are those of party operatives and to live up to any standard you have to be linked to this network.

Meeting with students from the University of Sulimaniya

Nonetheless, one has to recognize the remarkable achievements that have taken place here. Under the double embargo in the 1990s (from Saddam and from the international community) the Kurds still managed to develop a true experiment in democracy and state-building under very harsh conditions. How does one evaluate the achievements here? Afterall, it has barely been a 15-year journey… All this is very tough to disaggregate and our hope is that the next eight days will inform us further.

Sulimaniya moments...

2007-01-02T03:29:00.000-05:00

Late in the day in the city

Slaughter of a sheep for Eid. Man with the knife, before the photo was taken: "Give George Bush a big kiss for me."

Gas station

Sulimaniya...

2007-01-01T02:03:00.000-05:00

An overdue entry – as you might imagine internet is not easily accessible here. Neither is the airport apparently… We finally arrived in Suli on the evening of the 29th. The landing was nearly as adventurous as the corkscrew one in Baghdad the day before. The runway here is short and is flanked between two gorgeous mountain ranges – our Iraqi Airways flight (operated by a Lebanese company called “Flying Carpet” – seriously…) made as graceful a landing as it can, considering it had to use a parachute to slow the plane down on the runway.

We were greeted by some security forces when we got off the plane... they approached us and quietly said to us “DoD??” – inquiring if we too are working for the Department of Defense. They were surprised and somewhat amused by the fact we were students.

In our first two full days in Suli we have had eight interviews and got to see the city in its entirety, including climbing up the snowy mountains.

The city suffers from multiple power outages everyday and the average household (not connected to the “special” electricity feeder for government operatives) gets only two hours of electricity a day and limited access to water. Nonetheless, in an effort to attract foreign investment the city is undertaking massive infrastructure development.

We awoke the first morning to the news of Saddam Hussein’s hanging. We imagined that the streets here would erupt in joy and celebration. As we rushed to go capture this jubilation we were surprised to find a phlegmatic populace convinced that justice was not served. After all, Saddam was tried for killing Iraqi Shi’a in Dujail and not for the massacre of hundreds of thousands of Kurds during his reign. Our fixer, whose father was tortured to death by Saddam’s forces shed a brief tear, but otherwise the residents of Suli preferred to stay inside with their families on the holy day of Eid.

Our interviews thus far have been evenly split between government and non-government voices. We managed to secure a meeting with the head of intelligence for the Peshmerga (Kurdish military) – an impressive man named Mr. Aziz. In the afternoon he sent 3 SUVs and six armed guards to get us from the hotel and drove us to his private home for the interview. He then took us to a former Ba’athist base that he had converted to a public park for youth. He treated us to a delicious meal and conversation was enthralling. He spoke at length about his views on the politicization of human rights and how those who discuss it with him simply seek to thwart the development of Kurdistan. Like the other officials we met his main concern was to convince us that the Kurdish Regional Government is progressive, democratic, and most importantly pro-American.

The journalists we have met – including the editor of the only independent paper here – were far more willing and excited to offer a contradictory account. They shared stories of corruption, stunted growth, a leadership that still feeds of its revolutionary past but is ill prepared to usher in the age of liberalization.

More later—off to a meeting with the diplomatic branch of the ruling party here. The happiest of new years to everyone!

An unexpected detour...

2006-12-28T16:17:00.000-05:00

There are some words you hope to never hear from the cockpit of your airplane. Today, we got a doozy:

“Ladies and Gentlemen, we regret to inform you that current weather conditions prevent us from landing in Sulimaniya. We'll be diverting the plane to refuel in Baghdad. Thank you for your understanding."

Twenty surreal minutes later, the plane ducked between choppers and undertook a corkscrew landing to Baghdad International Airport – much to the chagrin of the many interesting characters on our half empty, unmarked, South African operated plane – called the “Bella Donna”. We made a second effort to land in Suli but the visibility was zero and we returned to Amman, where we had begun our journey six hours earlier.

We were graciously offered a ride back to the city with a gentleman who works for Dyncorp – a private security consultancy. He travels to Kurdistan every couple of weeks where he trains the Asayesh – the internal security force for the PUK. A former cop from Albuquerque, Mr. Larry is an avid cowboy and hunter. We were impressed with his stories about bow hunting bears in South Dakota. He seemed to have an intimate knowledge of Kurdish politics and security. Apparently, his responsibility is to help the Kurds develop a counter-narcotics capacity. Although the drug use there is minimal there has been new traffic originating in Afghanistan and moving towards Turkey. Rather than taxing the illicit trade for profit – a potentially lucrative revenue generating practice for the otherwise financially strapped Kurds – the Kurds are working hard to stop the trade.

We hope to make another effort tomorrow morning on Iraqi Airways – hopefully we won’t have to cancel many more meetings. Last night was very productive – we sat with Hania Mufti for two hours. Her fifteen years of working in Iraqi Kurdistan means she is simply a wealth of knowledge and had many sage words of advice for us. She kindly brought her SMS chip and shared with us numerous contacts to call when we get in. Ms. Mufti is an amazing woman – it takes a lot of guts to do her kind of work and she has done it in some of the most sensitive places in the world. As we said farewell, we extended to her once more an invitation to come speak at Tufts. She’s off to Baghdad soon so it might have to wait several more months.

We were hosted here by a dear friend, Samer, who I met through Karim – a college friend who became a brother. Samer and Karim went to school in Amman together and I had the good fortune to spend some time with him when he visited Karim in the States. His family is the epitome of Arab hospitality. After a quick tour of Amman and a wonderful traditional Jordanian meal, we stayed up late into the night in the family room with our new friends ushering in the Eid Holiday.

We hope our next entry will be from Iraq.

Morning Headlines

2006-12-26T09:15:00.000-05:00

Heading off to Logan in just a few. The morning headlines punctuate the divergence between the chaos in the Sunni Triangle and the relative stability in the Kurdish Autonomous Zone. C.J. Chivers' piece in the NYT is a sobering reminder that not all is paradise. As serendipity would have it - just for you Sherm - our first interview on the trip will be with one Ms. Hania Mufti, a researcher for Human Rights Watch, quoted in the article. Readers always invited to comment...

Welcome to SemiState

2006-12-24T22:26:00.000-05:00

Dear Friends,

Welcome to SemiState! Our dear professor once defined pundits as those who speak a lot on a topic they know very little about. While we cannot promise that this will be any different, we intend to do our best.

This blog is our humble wish to share with you our journey through Iraqi Kurdistan and our larger musings on our semistate project – an exploration of the statecraft and internal dynamics of unrecognized states. From Somaliland to Kurdistan, Nagorno-Karabakh to Chechnya and beyond, this is our effort to study a proliferating anomaly in the international system. What explains this phenomenon? What are the implications for international development, security, and politics? Are we witnessing the tangible post-modern sovereignty reality or simply a remarkably durable transitory entity?

From December 26-Jan. 12, we will post from Iraqi Kurdistan. We will spend time in Sulimaniya, Erbil, Dohuk and surrounding villages and towns. We have scheduled nearly two dozen interviews – from ministers in the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), peshmerga, civil society leaders, students, academicians, international governmental organizations, coalition forces, and more.

Here is to a happy holiday season and a safe and fulfilling new year!

Yours,

Skinny and Matanski